Dynamics of electricity production and GDP growth over 12 years. Critical relationship (diagram)
Over the past decade, the Kyrgyz Republic's electricity industry has gone through periods of growth and decline, influenced by various factors such as economic changes, technological progress and changes in consumer demand. Tazabek examined the dynamics of production, electricity consumption, as well as GDP in the period from 2011 to 2022, based on data from the National Statistical Committee.
2011-2012: Start from scratch and first signs of growth
From 2011 to 2012, GDP growth was 6.45%. At the same time, electricity production remained stable, showing no noticeable growth (0.1%). This may be due to increased industrial activity and general economic recovery requiring additional energy supplies.
However, from 2012 to 2013, electricity production declined sharply
from 15168.3 billion kWh to 14011.4 (-7.6%). The country's economy at this time is still developing rapidly with a growth of 10.61%. Accordingly, electricity consumption increases by 5.71%.
2013-2015: Sharp fluctuations
Over the next three years, the energy industry faced difficulties. In 2013, there was a sharp decline in electricity production of 7.6%, despite economic growth of 10.61%. In 2015, there was a sharp decline in both production (-10.6%) and the economy (-10.67%), which may be associated with the economic crisis of 2014-2015.
2016-2018: Gradual recovery and stable growth
Since 2016, the energy industry has gradually recovered with a slight increase in production of 0.7%. This positive trend continued in 2017, with an increase of 17.6%. The population continued to grow, contributing to increased energy consumption (6.77%) and GDP growth (13.24%).
In 2018, production growth was more moderate (1.9%), and GDP growth (7.79%) stimulated an increase in electricity consumption by 5.63%.
2019-2022: New difficulties and instability
From 2019 to 2020, GDP decreased by 11.24%, which affected the volume of electricity consumption (-2.65%). Electricity production increases slightly - by 2%.
After the post-pandemic crisis of 2020, the country's economy is gradually recovering. In 2022, GDP growth was 28.24%. However, the volume of electricity production is decreasing (by 8.3%) and the volume of consumption (by 1.23%).
2023
This year there is an increase in electricity production by 14%, GDP (by 3.9%). At the end of the first half of the year, electricity consumption amounted to 11.1 billion kWh. As Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev previously reported, in 2023 electricity consumption will amount to 17.4 billion kWh, which indicates an 8% increase in consumption.
