The Ministry of Energy will prepare an energy strategy until 2050, providing for an increase in the share of nuclear and gas in the energy balance of the Russian Federation
The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation will prepare a strategy for the country's energy development until 2050 (the current strategy is designed until 2035), Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said in an interview with the Russia-24 TV channel.
“Now a low-carbon development strategy is being developed, we must take these trends into account. Today we have a good balance, we have about 40% hydroelectricity and nuclear power generation. I think that by 2035 we will increase the volume of RES from 0.5% to 4.5%. Hydroelectric power generation will remain at about the same volume, but considering that consumption is growing, production will increase. And there will be a trend to increase the share of nuclear generation to 23%”, the minister said in an interview with the Russia 24 TV channel.
At the same time, according to the deputy head of the Ministry of Energy Yevgeny Grabchak, quoted by the Peretok publication, by 2035 the share of hydroelectric power plants in the generation should be 19.8%, coal-fired TPPs - 9.5%.
By 2050, the share of gas generation will grow to 43%, nuclear power plants - up to 25%, renewable energy sources - up to 12.5%. The production of hydroelectric power plants will decrease to 19%, coal-fired power plants - to 4.5%, the Deputy Minister told reporters during REW-2021.
In its calculations, the Ministry of Energy proceeds from the assumption that electricity consumption will increase by 1-1.5% annually. Growth by 2035 should be 24% of the level of 2020, by 2050 - 43%, Grabchak noted.
“The structure of Russia's energy balance is stable and, most likely, will remain stable, taking into account the natural growth of consumption of the order of 1-1.5% per year. The trend of growth in consumption within these limits will continue”, the Deputy Minister said at the session“ Small Nuclear Energy, Power Supply for Regions and Industry ”at REW-2021.
According to Nikolai Shulginov, the 2050 energy strategy may be approved after the adoption of the country's low-carbon development strategy.
“We must gradually think about development for a more distant future, and the horizon of this planning. I think that in the energy strategy we will not only until 2035, maybe we will adjust after the adoption of the low-carbohydrate development strategy, and look ahead to 2050, "he said in an interview with Russia 24.
Note that earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting on energy development in early October said that the energy strategy should be designed for decades to come.
“We have a competitive advantage - this is our energy system, our fossil energy resources. It would be wrong to completely abandon such an advantage for the sake of trends”, said Yevgeny Grabchak, speaking at REW-2021.
Even according to the most aggressive forecasts, the share of hydrocarbons in the global energy balance may fall from the current 85% to 60-65%, in the baseline scenario it will be about 70%, Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said at REW-2021.
At the same time, according to him, the share of gas will remain until 2040. “Its share will even increase, because no one has yet come up with a better transitional fuel in terms of energy intensity and availability in terms of logistics and stocks in the world,” he added.
The document can be approved after the adoption of the low-carbon development strategy.