The share of "green" generation in electricity production in the Russian Federation by 2050 will increase from 39.3% in 2021 to 56.8%, - SO UPS

In accordance with the forecast discussed at the site of the Ministry of Energy of Russia, in the structure of electricity generation until 2050, the share of "green" generation (includes solar power plants, wind power plants, nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants) in electricity production will increase from 39.3% in 2021 to 56.8% by 2050, said Denis Pilenieks, Deputy Head of the Directorate of SO UPS for Development of the UPS, during a meeting of the Committee for Energy Strategy and Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation (CCI RF).

At the same time, the generation of coal-fired thermal power plants in the overall structure will decrease from 12.6% to 4.7%, while the share of generation of SPPs and WPPs will reach 12.5%.

This forecast is based on the following key principles:

— reducing the share of coal-fired generation by decommissioning power plants with a service life of more than 70 years;

— maintaining the share of HPPs in electricity generation at the current level;

— bringing the share of nuclear power plants in electricity generation to 25%;

— an increase in the share of renewable energy sources, subject to ensuring the stability of the power system.

The current structure of generating capacities in the UPS of Russia reflects the historically established traditional structure of generation: as of January 1, 2022, 66.1% of the installed capacity of the UPS of Russia is accounted for by TPPs (including 49.5% - gas and 16.2% - coal) , 20.3% - HPPs, 12% - NPPs, 1.6% - RES. According to SO UPS, with such a generation structure, almost 2/3 of the total electricity production is carried out at thermal power plants, and only 39.3% fall to the share of "green" generation.

To implement such a large-scale transformation of the power system, it will be necessary to solve many technical and organizational problems, including ensuring the mass development of networks for the integration of growing share of renewable energy sources, a significant development of regulatory resources (PSPPs, other high-capacity storage devices), the development of mechanisms to support traditional generation, the development of "fast markets" , including demand management and reserve markets (RPFC and ASFC), large-scale implementation of fast management technologies, including remote ones.

D. Pilenieks noted the need for a balanced approach to changing the structure of generating capacities, taking into account both technical and economic factors, including: restrictions on the placement of renewable energy sources in the energy system and the need to reserve their capacity using high-capacity storage units (PSPPs) and traditional gas generation, implementation costs scenarios, the cost of primary energy resources, maintaining the need for basic generation.